Let’s Talk Election

I’m back!

After a horrendously failed attempt to restart regularly writing during the school year, culminating in a single blog post and one angry member of the University of Calgary women’s hockey team, the blog has been resurrected yet again.  Truth be told, it’s really difficult to find time (and motivation) to write for fun at school when you spend all your work time writing as well – but, now that I’m back in Yellowknife, free time is abundant and write again I shall!  So stay tuned for another summer of blog – filled with my thoughts on sports and local and national news of the day, rants, interviews, the return of Cutten’s Corner, and general all-round goodness.  Heck, there may even be a couple of new guest columnists this year.  So read on!  It’s not like you have anything better to do. 

To kick things off, I’d like to start with my thoughts on last week’s federal election.  Now that everybody has had a week of Stephen Harper’s majority government and the sky hasn’t fallen, it’s time to turn from reaction to analysis.  A few storylines stand out from this election for me, and I’ll be taking them on one at a time below:

1.  All Hail the King

So, here we are.  Stephen Harper has pulled off what many pundits thought impossible when he first rose to power in 2006 – created a Majority Conservative Government in a nation which is largely left-leaning.  How did he do it, you ask?  The answer, largely, was by standing pat – Harper focused on a few key ridings across the country and kept his campaigning to a minimum in the others, and found himself the beneficiary of vote-splitting between the Liberals and NDP in multiple instances. 

Undeniably, the victory was an impressive display of political strategy, made doubly so by the fact that the Conservatives’ policies, and Harper himself, are so polarizing – it seems like people either love them or hate them.  However, it does continue to shed a light on the deficiencies in Canada’s political system: it seems almost inconceivable to the honest observer that 40% of the popular vote is enough for a party to form a majority of the Government.  I’m not going to dive into this issue as I feel like it be an essay in itself – however, I will say that the system is flawed, and it’s unfortunately unlikely to change anytime soon.

Let’s speak on Harper himself for a moment, though.  To all of the anti-Harper supporters who spread the “ABC” voting slogan, and spoke of a Conservative majority as if the apocalypse itself was nearing, rest easy.  The sky isn’t falling.  The Conservatives have a platform that should (and I emphasize “should”) take care of the Canadian economy.  Historical ethical viewpoints of the party on things like abortion and gay marriage are closed-book issues in Canada – Harper isn’t an old-school dictator who plans on returning us to medieval times.  There are pros and cons to corporate tax cuts, for everyone in the country, not just corporations. 

True, Canada’s environmental policy is lagging at the moment, but we must realize that Canada faces a very distinct and difficult set of challenges when it comes to reducing our emissions – we are such a vast nation that we require much more in terms of transporting resources than “green” countries in places like Europe, and we are also one of the few (if not the only) first-world natural resource based economy.  Change WILL happen.  It will.  The fact that things like environmental policy are even discussed amongst the general public are a huge step forward from even 10 years ago – if we don’t take a huge leap forward today, we will soon.  As public sentiment grows, it has to happen.

And if Harper does destroy the country like half of my facebook friends seem to think he will, it’s only four years.  Seems like a long time now, but in the long term, it’s not.  Things will be alright, trust me.  That being said, it’s important that we remain vigilant – the only way to make positive change is to continue fighting for it, whether it’s election season or not. 

Canadians tend to be “Christmas Christians” when it comes to politics – we all pretend to care about issues during election time and then forget them all for the rest of our lives.  Without continued discussion and attempts to change the status quo, then everything will likely stay the same as it always has.  Don’t forget, everyone – Harper is entitled to represent you, and not himself.  Only by holding the government accountable can you ensure that it happens.

2.  Whither Thou, Quebec?

The shocking political shift of the entire province of Quebec is likely the most important storyline of this election, even more so than the Conservatives’ majority win.  With a singular shift in ideology, Quebeckers not only gave the NDP official opposition status for the first time in their history, but also decimated the historically powerful Liberal party and effectively wiped the Bloc Quebecois out of Parliament.  The onus for this shift seems to have been a province-wide dissent of Prime Minister Harper, which creates another interesting subplot: how do you govern a nation when the second-biggest province within it is against you?

To be fair, Quebec has not supported the Conservatives in recent elections either – choosing instead to throw their support behind the Liberals and, overwhelmingly, the Bloc.  So why the sudden (and massive) shift?  An interesting perspective on the issue was brought up my a co-worker of mine – a francophone originally from Quebec.  He explained that Quebeckers, moreso than any other province in Canada, are “monolithic” – in that they are a large bloc of (more or less) similar individuals in background.  The vast majority of Quebec citizens are white francophones – diversity isn’t as present as it is in many parts of the country, and thus, issues affect many citizens in the same way.  Because of this, Quebec citizens effectively decided as a “unit” that their best bet to oust the Conservatives was to elect the NDP, and therefore the party jumped from a single seat in the province to nearly 60 in the course of one election.

What is truly amazing is that this is not the first time this has happened – a similar swing occurred in 1962, when the Social Credit party went from 0 seats in the 1958 election to 26 in the 1962 by riding a populist momentum swing within the province.  Jack Layton and the NDP did well to take advantage of a Quebec looking for change – however, they would do well to heed the warnings from the Social Credit party as well, who were effectively finished as a political party within 15 years of their large swing in Quebec.  When the province turns, it turns on a dime, and the surprising dominance of the NDP does not mean that they will even be considered the favourites in Quebec in the next election – it will largely be up to the actions of Layton over the next four years to keep their support.

Achieving this goal will require a massive shift in both policy and party focus.  Layton, while in an enviable position as opposition leader, is also in a difficult situation – he must appease Quebeckers, which make up over half of his caucus, without alienating his supporters in the west.  Will he do it?  Is it even possible?  Only time will tell.

3.  The Also-Rans

Poor, poor Bloc Quebecois.  After being the leader of the official opposition for a time in the 1990s, the once proud party has been reduced to only four seats in the House of Commons.  Is this, like some pundits have suggested, the end of the separatist movement in Quebec?  Not likely – a large amount of Quebeckers still have separatist tendencies and the NDP even professed a slightly-nationalist stance in Quebec when campaigning there (another interesting situation for Mr. Layton to deal with).

However, we’ve likely seen the last of the party – and while this is disappointing for their supporters, it is, likely, a good thing for the Canadian federal system.  Not having a party with a separatist mandate hold so much sway in Canadian Parliament can only be a good thing – at least the NDP can discuss and make concessions with other parties on these issues, rather than be forced to take a hard line stance.  One thing I will miss though, is the prescence of Gilles Duceppe – he reminded me of a Disney cartoon villain.

Like the Bloc, the Liberal party also finds themselves looking for solace after being decimated over the past 10 years.  It’s hard not to find at least some fault with Michael Ignatieff – forced early into “defence mode” during the campaign, he seemed to spend most of his time putting down the other party leaders rather than touting his own policies.  The Liberal party will bounce back – in all honesty, a centrist party may be just what Canada needs – but it will need a new face, someone young, inspiring, and preferably French (to take back the aforementioned vulnerable Quebec vote). 

*Cough, cough… Justin Trudeau… cough*

In a final quick tip of the hat, congratulations to Elizabeth May for being the first member of the Green Party elected to parliament.  They won’t be able to keep you out of the debates now.  Stick it to those guys in Ottawa – if you’re going to be a thorn in their side and that’s it, make as much noise as you can.

4.  The Innocence of Youth

This election, a large emphasis was placed on the importance of youth voting and participation – traditionally, party leaders have ignored the youth vote as it was too small to be significant.  A Rick Mercer rant on CBC led to a country-wide “movement” that culminated in a swell of activism and the creation of “vote mobs” in Universities across the country.  The increased participation had many participants hopeful that change was imminent, as the majority of youth voters did not back the governing Conservatives.

Then Election Day came and went, and everything pretty much stayed the same.  Youth voter turnout barely increased (although to be fair full numbers haven’t been released yet) and the Conservatives are back in power, with a majority government, leading many confused, frustrated students wondering where the whole thing went wrong.

The answer is that the cause, while noble, was misdirected – students participating in the political process and university “vote mobs” were likely to vote whether all of the fanfare happened or not.  University students are already likely to vote in elections – the problem with youth voter turnout is the general apathy around those who aren’t “plugged in” to the country’s everyday goings on, and that’s where the focus needed to be turned to.  Things like the Liberal’s “education passport” sound great, but the students who care about that were already likely voting, and also likely voting left wing.  In order to really mobilize the youth vote, parties need to focus on things that working youth care about – things like apprenticeship training, tax cuts and savings accounts for young Canadians, cost-of-living subsidies to get young Canadians on their feet.  Hell, even reducing the tax on liquor.  I’d love to see Rick Mercer rant about THAT.

5.  The Great White North

Being an NWT resident, I thought I’d turn some attention to the situation up here, where, for the first time in a long time, our riding (the Western Arctic) actually meant something in the results of a federal election.  With polls suggesting the Conservatives were close to a majority, the NDP incumbent Dennis Bevington faced a tough challenge from Conservative Sandy Lee, ultimately winning the riding and being re-elected to parliament, now a member of the official opposition.

Bevington’s track record as an MP speaks for itself, and it is not something that I care to criticize.  However, the results of the election leave the NWT’s future within parliament up in the air to some degree – certainly, many voters voted based on whether to be part of a Conservative majority government, or, on the other side, to help prevent one.  As polling results poured in and it became clear that the majority was imminent regardless of the NWT’s choice, it made me wonder how many people, given the choice, would change their ballot – as a territory with only one riding, and the only province or territory without a Conservative representative, how will we be heard in government?  Both of our territorial counterparts have Conservative MPs as well – one being the federal health minister (Nunavut’s Leona Aglukkaq), and only time will tell us whether they receive preferential treatment over the next four years.

The results of this election leaves the position of Premier of the NWT more critical than ever – whoever is chosen in the fall’s territorial election will have a large amount of the burden of being the voice of an entire territory in Ottawa squarely on his/her shoulders.  As well, hopefully Bevington can leverage his status as being one of the more senior members of a largely green official opposition in order to create a voice in parliament for the citizens of the NWT.  Again, time will tell – but it is a very interesting and unique situation from a national standpoint, and one that will need to be closely monitored.

Anyways, there you have my marathon election post – sorry for the length, 6 months without writing gives me a lot to say!  Hope you enjoyed it, and expect many more posts (including an NHL conference finals preview, as well as a rating of Yellowknife’s best chicken wings) soon!

Till next time,
Garrett